What a discounted cash flow model actually values
A DCF values a business as the money it will hand its owners, discounted for the fact that money arriving later is worth less than money arriving now. Nothing else in it is fundamental. Every other line — revenue build, margin ramp, working capital schedule — exists only to produce the cash flow line and the discount rate.
This calculator runs the unlevered version, which is the one used in almost all banking and equity research work. You forecast free cash flow to the firm: the cash the operating business throws off before any payment to lenders or shareholders. Because that cash belongs to debt and equity together, you discount it at the weighted average cost of capital, and the answer is enterprise value — the value of the operations, independent of how they happen to be financed. You then subtract net debt to arrive at what the equity is worth, and divide by diluted shares to get a price per share you can compare with the screen.
The alternative, a levered DCF, forecasts free cash flow to equity and discounts at the cost of equity to reach equity value directly. It gives the same answer in theory and rarely does in practice, because the capital structure has to be modelled year by year. Use the unlevered form unless you are valuing a bank or an insurer, where debt is raw material rather than financing and enterprise value has no meaning.
Build the cash flow line first with the FCFF calculator, then bring the result here.
The formula, term by term
Enterprise value is a sum of two present values. The first is the explicit forecast: each year's cash flow divided by one plus the discount rate raised to the number of years you wait for it. The second is the terminal value: everything after the forecast ends, valued as at the final forecast date and then discounted back the same way.
The discount factor 1 ÷ (1 + WACC)t is the price of patience. At a 9.5% WACC, a dollar five years out is worth 63.5 cents today, and a dollar ten years out is worth 40.3 cents. That decay is why the explicit forecast rarely carries most of the value and why arguing about year-four gross margin is usually less productive than arguing about the terminal assumptions.
The terminal value compresses an infinite stream into one number. The perpetuity growth form, TV = FCFFn(1 + g) ÷ (WACC − g), is the Gordon growth formula applied to a whole firm rather than a dividend; the same algebra is set out in the terminal value calculator. The numerator is the first post-forecast year's cash flow. The denominator is the spread between what investors demand and what the business can grow at forever. That spread is small — seven points in the default case — so terminal value is extremely sensitive to both inputs, and a half-point change in either moves the answer by several percent.
The exit multiple form replaces that judgement with a market observation: what would a buyer pay for this cash flow stream at the exit date? It has the advantage of being checkable against comparable companies and the disadvantage of importing today's market mood into a valuation meant to be independent of it. Watch the denominator: this calculator applies the multiple to final-year free cash flow, whereas bankers normally quote EV/EBITDA. The two are linked by FCFF = EBITDA − tax on EBIT − CapEx − ΔNWC, so for any tax-paying business whose investment outweighs a working-capital release, terminal-year FCFF is the smaller figure and the EV/FCF multiple is therefore the larger one. Pasting a peer EV/EBITDA number straight into this field understates the terminal value. If you want to work in EBITDA terms, use the terminal value calculator, which takes terminal-year EBITDA directly. Serious models run both methods and reconcile.
The mid-year convention discounts each flow by half a year less, on the reasoning that cash arrives through the year rather than in a single December payment. It raises every present value by a factor of √(1 + WACC) — 4.6% at a 9.5% WACC. It is a convention, not a correction; state which one you used.
Worked example: $100M of FCFF growing 6% for five years at a 9.5% WACC
Take a company generating $100M of unlevered free cash flow, expected to grow 6% a year for five years, then 2.5% forever. Its WACC is 9.5%, it carries $250M of net debt, and it has 120 million diluted shares. Year-end discounting.
- Project the cash flows. Multiply by 1.06 each year: $106.00M, $112.36M, $119.10M, $126.25M, $133.82M.
- Build the discount factors. 1.095 = 1.0950, then 1.1990, 1.3129, 1.4377, 1.5742. The reciprocals are the factors.
- Discount each year. 106.00 ÷ 1.0950 = $96.80M; 112.36 ÷ 1.1990 = $93.71M; 119.10 ÷ 1.3129 = $90.71M; 126.25 ÷ 1.4377 = $87.81M; 133.82 ÷ 1.5742 = $85.01M.
- Sum the forecast period. 96.80 + 93.71 + 90.71 + 87.81 + 85.01 = $454.05M.
- Grow the final year once more. $133.82M × 1.025 = $137.17M — the first perpetuity year.
- Capitalise it. $137.17M ÷ (0.095 − 0.025) = $137.17M ÷ 0.07 = $1,959.54M, the terminal value standing at the end of year five.
- Discount the terminal value. $1,959.54M ÷ 1.5742 = $1,244.76M.
- Add them. Enterprise value = 454.05 + 1,244.76 = $1,698.81M.
- Bridge to equity. 1,698.81 − 250 = $1,448.81M; divided by 120 million shares = $12.07 per share.
Two diagnostics fall out of this. The terminal value is 1,244.76 ÷ 1,698.81 = 73.3% of enterprise value. And the terminal value implies a multiple of 1,959.54 ÷ 133.82 = 14.6× final-year free cash flow — a number you can hold up against what comparable businesses actually trade for.
How to read the result
Compare the value per share with the market price, but treat a gap as a hypothesis rather than a signal. A DCF that lands within roughly 10% of the traded price is telling you your assumptions match consensus. A DCF that comes out at double the price is almost always telling you something about your inputs, not about the market.
Check the terminal share first. A five-year model with a normal WACC typically puts 65–80% of enterprise value in the terminal period, purely because five years of cash flow is a small slice of a going concern's life. Above 85%, the explicit forecast is decoration; either extend the horizon until the business genuinely reaches steady state, or accept that you are really applying a multiple and say so.
Then check the implied exit multiple. This is the discipline that separates a model from a fantasy. If your perpetuity assumptions imply 25× terminal free cash flow and the peer group trades at 12×, the terminal growth rate is doing work the business cannot do. Run it the other way as well: enter an exit multiple from comparables and read off what perpetuity growth it corresponds to.
Then sanity-check the growth-to-WACC spread. Terminal growth above about 3% for a mature developed-market business implies it eventually becomes a larger share of the economy without limit. Below zero implies gradual liquidation, which is a legitimate assumption for a declining asset but should be deliberate.
Finally, run the model at the boundaries. Take the WACC up and down a point and the terminal growth up and down half a point. If the equity value swings by a factor of two — and at a narrow spread it will — report a range rather than a point. Pair it with a relative-valuation cross-check and with the dividend discount model where the company pays out most of what it earns.
Terminal multiple implied by WACC and perpetuity growth
| Perpetuity growth | WACC 7% | WACC 8% | WACC 9% | WACC 10% | WACC 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% | 14.3× | 12.5× | 11.1× | 10.0× | 8.3× |
| 1.0% | 16.8× | 14.4× | 12.6× | 11.2× | 9.2× |
| 2.0% | 20.4× | 17.0× | 14.6× | 12.8× | 10.2× |
| 2.5% | 22.8× | 18.6× | 15.8× | 13.7× | 10.8× |
| 3.0% | 25.8× | 20.6× | 17.2× | 14.7× | 11.4× |
| 4.0% | 34.7× | 26.0× | 20.8× | 17.3× | 13.0× |
Read across a row to see how much of your valuation is a bet on the discount rate. At 2.5% growth, moving the WACC from 9% to 7% raises the terminal multiple from 15.8x to 22.8x — a 44% increase in terminal value from two points of discount rate.
Mistakes that break a DCF
- Discounting levered cash flow at the WACC. If your cash flow is after interest, you have already paid the lenders and the WACC double-counts the benefit of debt. Either strip interest out and use the WACC, or leave it in and use the cost of equity.
- Mixing nominal cash flows with a real discount rate. A WACC built from nominal government bond yields must be applied to cash flows that include inflation, and the terminal growth rate must be nominal too.
- Forgetting that the terminal year must be sustainable. If year five still has capital expenditure well above depreciation and working capital consuming cash, it is not a steady state and capitalising it into perpetuity overstates value. Normalise the terminal year before you apply the formula.
- Setting terminal growth by feel. The growth rate and the reinvestment rate are linked: sustainable growth equals the reinvestment rate times the return on invested capital. Assuming 4% growth with no reinvestment assumes free money.
- Using a stale share count. Diluted shares must include in-the-money options, restricted stock and convertible dilution as at the valuation date, not last year's cover page.
- Netting off cash that is not really available. Cash trapped offshore, required as operating float, or pledged against obligations does not reduce net debt at face value.
- Presenting one number. A DCF output is a distribution. Show the sensitivity grid across WACC and terminal growth alongside the point estimate.
What this calculator deliberately does not do
It applies a single compound growth rate across the forecast rather than accepting a bespoke cash flow for each year, so a business with a lumpy capital programme or a step change in margin needs a spreadsheet. It assumes a constant WACC, which is a simplification whenever leverage changes materially over the forecast. It ignores mid-period acquisitions, non-operating assets such as equity stakes and surplus property, and tax attributes such as net operating loss carryforwards — all of which are added to enterprise value separately in a full model. And it applies no minority discount, control premium or liquidity discount.
Where the DCF sits among valuation methods
A DCF is the only method that values a business on its own economics rather than by reference to what someone paid for something else. That is its strength and its weakness: it is honest about assumptions and completely dependent on them. Practitioners therefore triangulate.
Trading comparables apply a peer multiple to a current metric. They are fast, market-anchored, and inherit whatever the market currently believes about the sector. Precedent transactions use multiples paid in completed deals and therefore embed a control premium. Leveraged buyout analysis inverts the question, solving for the price a financial sponsor could pay while still hitting a target return; it typically sets a valuation floor. The football-field chart in any fairness opinion shows all four side by side, and a DCF sitting far outside the others is a prompt to re-examine the inputs, not evidence that everyone else is wrong.
Two structural cases need a different tool. For a company whose value is dividends rather than reinvestment — a regulated utility, a mature insurer — the Gordon growth dividend discount model is more direct, and for banks it is close to mandatory because enterprise value is not meaningful. For an early-stage business with negative cash flow through the whole forecast, the terminal value is effectively the entire valuation, and a venture method or scenario-weighted approach is more honest than a DCF whose answer is one assumption in disguise.
Whichever route you take, the discount rate deserves as much work as the cash flow. A WACC assembled from a CAPM cost of equity, an after-tax cost of debt and market-value weights is a chain of estimates, and the terminal value magnifies every one of them. When you are done, compare the modelled figure with the company's traded enterprise value today.
Key terms
- Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)
- Cash generated by operations after tax and after the investment needed to sustain them, but before any payment to lenders or shareholders. Also called unlevered free cash flow.
- WACC
- The weighted average cost of capital: the after-tax cost of debt and the cost of equity, weighted by their market values in the capital structure. It is the return the whole capital base requires.
- Enterprise value
- The value of the operating business to all capital providers. Equity market capitalisation plus debt, preferred and minority interest, less cash and equivalents.
- Net debt
- Total borrowings plus preferred stock and minority interest, less cash and marketable securities. It is the bridge from enterprise value to equity value.
- Terminal value
- The value at the end of the forecast horizon of all cash flows beyond it, computed either by capitalising a perpetuity or by applying an exit multiple.
- Mid-year convention
- Discounting each period's cash flow from the midpoint of the year rather than the end, reflecting cash that arrives continuously.
